UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures gain 1% ahead of contract expiry

(Adds comments, updates prices for settlement) Sep 26 (Reuters) – US natural gas futures closed down about 1% on Monday, recovering as the front month contract approaches expiry despite forecasts of milder weather for them earlier in the year session sent down to the lowest level since July 15. Front-month gas futures rose 7.5 cents, or 1.1%, to $6.903 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) after falling to a session low of $6.526 amid moderate temperatures and a modest pick-up in production and recession concerns . “It’s kind of a rally after all the selling, all the moving south to lower prices,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy at StoneX Financial Inc. “The contract expires on Wednesday, so you’re going to have a liquidation Start today.” Data provider Refinitiv forecast 76 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, up from its estimate of 88 CDDs on Friday. CDDs, used to estimate the need to cool homes and businesses, measure the Number of degrees that the average daily temperature is above 65 Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) Hurricane Ian is expected to cause wind and storm surges in western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Monday, while Ian could bring rain to the southeast from the United States, which could hurt gas demand, Saal said, but prices should find technical support near $6.40-$6.50, analysts von Gelber & Associates said in a statement: “Export demand for Powerburn and LNG was also higher year-on-year despite the outage of the Freeport LNG export facility. When Freeport resumes operations in November, export demand for LNG is likely to hit record highs above 14 Bcf/d, which will mitigate additional dry gas production gains.” The second-biggest U.S. LNG export facility used about 2 bcfd of gas before closing on June 8 Freeport expects to resume operations, at least partially, in early to mid-November.”While today’s strong recovery may have offered some comfort to the bulls, we believe it is premature to claim that a price bottom has been hit as we have closed the door.” leave open for further decline to around $6.35,” energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Week ended Week ended year Five years ago Sept 23 Sept 16 Avg Sept 23 (Forecast) (Actual ) Sep 23 2,960 2,874 3,157 3,283 US Total Storage vs. 5 Year Average -9.8% -10.4% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Previous Day This Month Previous Year Five Years Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 6.84 7.18 5.11 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 49.31 53.11 22.61 16.04 7th .49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 37.57 39.91 23.35 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Previous Day Previous Year 10 Years 30 Years Norm Norm US GFS HDDs 55 53 24 63 77 US GFS CDDs 76 88 89 85 73 US GFS TDDs 131 141 113 148 150 Refinitiv US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Previous Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last year’s five-year moving average for Month US Supply (bcfd) US Floor 48 Dry Production 98.3 98.7 99.0 93.5 87.0 US Imports from Canada 8.0 7.8 7.5 8.3 7.7 US LNG -Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 US total supply 106.2 106.4 106.5 101.8 95.8 US demand (bcfd) US exports to Canada 2.1 1st .9 1.9 2.0 2.4 US Exports to Mexico US 5.5 5.1 LNG 11.5 11.0 10.3 4.9 US Commercial 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.9 US Residential 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.9 US Power Plant 36.4 32.4 32.0 29.8 33.2 US Industrial 21.3 21.7 21.4 20.7 21.2 US Vegetable Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 US Pipe Distribution Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1.1 0.1 Total US Consumption 73.3 71.4 70.4 66.7 70.3 Total US Demand 92.4 90.3 88.8 84.7 82.9 US Weekly Electricity Generation Percentage by Fuel – EIA 2 September Wind 9 10 8 6 7 Solar 4 3 3 3 3 Hydro 5 5 5 6 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Oil 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 39 41 42 45 44 Coal 19 19 19 21 21 Nuclear 21 19 19 18 17 SNL US -Next Day Natural Gas Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Previous Day Henry Hub 6.75 7.76 Transco Z6 New Yo rk 3.74 5.50 PG&E Citygate 7.30 8.01 Dominion South 3.76 5.47 Chicago Citygate 4.92 6.38 Algonquin Citygate 4.07 5.85 SoCal Citygate 5.75 6.82 Waha Hub 3.76 4.88 AECO 4.16 4.25 SNL US Power prices next day ($ per megawatt hour before the day new) England 38.50 63.00 PJM West 45.75 66.25 Ercot North 52.25 83.00 Mid C 139.00 59.25 Palo Verde 58.75 70.50 SP-15 60 ,25 72,25 (Report of Bharat Govind Gautam and Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

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