The U.S. Economy Is Screwed Whether Inflation Slows Or Not

The financial markets – both stocks and bonds – have started rapidly in 2023. IS&P 500 (SPY) rose 3-4%, while small-caps (IWM) and long-term Treasuries (TLT) gained 6. %. Call this the January effect or whatever you want, but there is an undeniable sense of optimism that is not yet fully supported by the data.

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If you look at retail sales, industrial production or housing starts, you can conclude that the US economy is slowing down at a faster rate than before, perhaps even to the point of recession expected by the end of the year.

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