Enphase Energy: Continuing Nearby Capital Gains (NASDAQ:ENPH)

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market prices are is predicted every day by self-protective, disruptive actions being taken by MMs negotiating large-scale block trades for institutional investors who manage their billion-dollar equity investment portfolios.

Records of market results that follow such daily Forecasts make their trends visually comprehensible and their opportunities and risks clear in graphic form. The images shown below are the negotiated forecast results, not any hoped-for tools to guess what might happen later. While there are no guarantees about the future, examples at hand are far better than assertion hypotheses without evidence.

In addition, the results follow identical strategy disciplines for all stocks, making forecast expectations directly comparable. In this way, personal preferences can be carefully considered.

The main stock of interest in this article is Enphase Energy, Inc (NASDAQ:ENPH).

Company description

“Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures and sells module-level energy solutions for the residential photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally, and combines it with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control services. It also offers AC battery storage systems, Envoy communication gateways, and the Enlighten cloud-based monitoring service, among other accessories. The company sells its solutions to solar dealers and directly to major installers, OEMs, strategic partners and homeowners, as well as through its existing product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California .” – Source: Yahoo Finance

Road analyst estimates

Yahoo Finance

We begin by comparing earnings prospects and risk positions.

illustration 1

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Forecasts inspired by MM hedging


(used with permission)

The expected profits for these securities are the largest profits from the current market close that are worth protecting short positions. Your measurement is on the horizontal green scale.

The risk dimension consists of actual price declines at their most extreme point while held in the previous pursuit of upside premiums similar to those currently observed. They are measured on the red vertical scale.

Both scales show a percentage change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exceeds its expected return is above the dotted diagonal line. High yield issues are in the down and right directions.

Our main interest is ENPH on the ground [10]. A “Market Index” norm of reward-risk trade-offs is offered by SPY [7]. The most appealing (to own) of this one illustration 1 View can be ACLS [8]. But other considerations in Figure 3 will show why this may not be the case.

Comparative Characteristics of Alternative Stocks: Utilities

figure 2

MM Hedging Forecasts


used with permission

That figure 2 map provides a good parallel to the “business as usual” that permeated the auto industry before Tesla (TSLA). 21st century stock markets thrive on technological advances, but there are often some laggards.

How do you want your capital to fare, scared? Then you are probably missing out on ENPH’s expected +20%+ short-term capital gains.

That illustration 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of any stock investment in the short term. There are other aspects of the comparison that this map sometimes doesn’t convey well, especially when general market perspectives like SPY’s are involved, as shown in Figure 2 in situ [10]. And where there are “how likely” questions, other comparison charts such as Figure 3 can be useful.

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The yellow highlighting of the table’s cells highlights factors important to security valuations and the security ENPH that shows the most promise for near-capital gains, as ranked in the column [R]. Pink cell fills indicate insufficient proportions of essential performance requirements in competition, such as [T] Where [F] risk exposure exceeds [E] reward option.

figure 3

detailed comparative data


used with permission

The price range predictions implied by the day’s transaction activity are presented in columns [B] and [C]typically around the daily closing price [D]. They produce a measure of risk and reward that we call the Range Index [G]the percentage of the prediction range from B to C that falls between D and C.

Today’s Gs are used for the last 5 years of each stock’s daily forecast history [M] count and average beforehand [L] Experiences. Less than 20 of Ls or less than 3 years history of Ms are considered statistically insufficient.

[H] indicates what percentage of L positions were closed profitably, either at peak prices or at the market close above the day following the predicted cost of entry for the closing price. The net realization of all Ls is shown in FIG [I].

[I] Fractions are weighted with H and 100-H in [O, P, & Q] appropriately conditioned by [J] provide investment ranking [R] in CAGR units of basis points per day.

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The parade of [H] profitable positions at 10 out of 11 are excellent.

Comparable data for the S&P 500 Market Index ETF and for the 3,000+ other stock populations with comparable price projections provides perspective on the Covid stock group’s results. Top ranking issues from this population support ENPH’s excellent CAGR score.

Current trends from Price area Predictions for ENPH

Trend of daily forecasts


(used with permission)

This is not a typical “technical analysis chart” of simple historical (only) observations. Instead pictures of Daily updated market maker price range forecasts implied by real-time live capital commitments.

Its communicative value is presented here through visual comparisons of the proportions of upside and downside price change expectations at each forecast date. Expectations of the market making community influenced by the actions of an interested and involved institutional investment participant with a large US Dollar.

These forecasts are typically resolved to time horizons of less than half a year and often to two months or less. This states that of the 189 previous predictions like today’s, about 10 out of 11 were profitable, completed in 27 market days (less than 6 weeks) profitable with average gains of +21.9%, a CAGR rate of 559%. No promises, just fun with the story.


Comparing the performance of short-term market maker forecasts for Enphase Energy With similar projections for other tech-active stocks being pursued by investors, it seems clear that this stock can be an attractive investment choice for investors pursuing short-term capital gains strategies.

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